星期二, 7月 22, 2008
廣告史上最沒有創意的跟風
Nike很多年前以一句nothing is impossible打響名堂，成為廣告口號的經典。大家想都想不到，堂堂的國際大品牌，其對手adidas竟然就將之掉轉 impossible is nothing，作為標語。省時省力之極。更誇張的是，中國的李寧牌，就直接以其中文意思「一切皆有可能」為口號。真是搞什麼啊！堪稱廣告史上最沒創意的跟風。李寧甚至連商標設計都與Nike雷同。中國人，唉．．．
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www.nike.com
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李寧(LiNing)
http://www.li-ning.com
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www.adidas.com
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http://www.li-ning.com
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星期一, 7月 21, 2008
Smart Tips to Lower Driving Expenses
Smart Tips to Lower Driving Expenses
by John Adams
Thursday, July 17, 2008
provided by FORBES AUTOS.com
The most important dollar figure for calculating driving expenses is $140.
That’s about how much a barrel of oil currently costs.
This historic high is almost single-handedly responsible for raising the cost of owning and maintaining your automobile. “The overall cost of ownership was likely down if you look at non-gas factors,” says Michael Calkins, manager of approved auto repair for AAA, in Heathrow, Fla. “But the cost of fuel overwhelms everything else.”
The average driver using a new car can expect to spend $8,121 this year to rack up 15,000 miles on it, or 4% more than the $7,823 it would have cost last year, according to AAA’s annual study that assesses ownership costs. That works out to 54.1 cents for every mile, an increase of 1.9 cents.
The study, called “Your Driving Costs,” calculated ownership costs for four-wheel-drive SUVs separately, and they drain significantly more funds than the average car: a projected $10,448 per year, up from $9,997 in 2007.
Smaller Size, Smaller Expense
The size of a car has a big impact on how much it costs to finance, own and maintain. And generally speaking, the smaller the car is, the less it will cost owners.
For small sedans, the average ownership cost in 2008 is expected to be $6,320 — up from $6, 217 in 2007. Medium sedans should increase to $8,273 from $7,871, according to AAA.
For large sedans, the cost is much higher: $9,769 in 2008, up from $9,380 in 2007. For minivans, costs should increase to $8,644 from $8,639, which is lower than large sedans and SUVs.
Those numbers suggest that value-oriented drivers shopping for a large vehicle that accommodates five or more occupants would be better off choosing a minivan over a large sedan or SUV when it comes to ownership costs.
Money-Saving Tips
Besides downsizing and driving less, there are other ways to curtail costs, some of which have little to do with prices at the pump.
Simply lengthening scheduled maintenance intervals can save money. Today’s vehicles can go longer between routine services, such as oil changes.
“There are better quality engines being manufactured with a more precise tolerance and improved lubricants, and the combination of these things allows you to expand certain maintenance intervals,” says Jim Cain, a spokesman for Ford in Dearborn, Mich.
General Motors now includes an “oil life monitoring system” on its vehicles; it’s currently on about 18 million of them. The system continuously monitors engine-operating conditions to determine when to change oil. Intervals usually range between 5,000 and 12,000 miles, depending on driving conditions and climate.
The traditional 3,000-mile oil-change interval espoused for decades is becoming obsolete. And at around $50 a pop, fewer oil changes each year means more money in the bank — or more money for gas.
Being smart about where your vehicle is serviced can also keep costs down.
“Independent repair shops are less expensive than dealers, so that’s something to consider,” says AAA’s Calkins. “You don’t have to have your car maintained at a dealer to maintain your warranty.”
Drivers should also be vigilant of unnecessary or premature maintenance. “You don’t have to change your wiper blades if they’re still successfully clearing the window,” Calkins says.
Online resources such as the new website RepairPal.com can help in assessing maintenance and service costs and in finding reputable shops with competitive rates.
AAA projects that maintenance costs for the three sedan classes (small, medium and large) will drop to 4.57 cents per mile this year, down from 4.9 cents per mile in 2007.
Gassing Up
Fuel expenses are up across the board, as expected. The most dramatic hikes are for less efficient larger vehicles.
Four-wheel-drive SUVs still have the highest fuel expense, costing owners a projected 17.05 cents per mile in 2008, up from 12.6 cents in 2007, according to AAA data. Minivans do slightly better on fuel: 14.01 cents per mile this year, versus 10.6 cents last year.
On average, owners of small sedans like the Volvo S40, for instance, will pay the least in fuel expenses: 9.39 cents per mile this year, up from 7.4 cents in 2007. Medium sedans will cost owners 12.34 cents per mile for fuel, up from 9.4 cents; and large sedans 13.38 cents, up from 10 cents.
AAA’s fuel costs for 2007 were based on $2.25 per gallon gas at the end of 2006, while 2008’s were based on $2.94 per gallon at the end of 2007 — a figure that already seems quaint.
“This gas-price-driven increase in expense doesn’t feel like a simple economic cycle to me,” says Charles Ballard, a professor of economics at Michigan State University in East Lansing, Mich. “Gas at $4 per gallon is a reality during the summer driving season this year, and if this maintains itself, people will get the message that we’re in a new regime.”
Protracted Fuel Frenzy
Ballard and other industry analysts believe high gas prices could be here to stay. If so, the public will likely downsize to smaller vehicles, own fewer vehicles overall and drive fewer miles, experts say.
Higher fuel costs have already made an impact on Ballard’s next car purchase. “I’m going to get a passenger car,” he says. “I would have gotten an SUV, but I’m looking at a Chevy Impala. It’s not super fuel-efficient, but it has a feature that allows you to take down the back seat and haul stuff that way.”
Visit the Family & Home Center
The U.S. Department of Transportation reports that Americans drove 3.6 percent fewer miles last year than the year before — a total of 3.003 trillion miles in 2007 compared to 3.014 trillion miles in 2006, according to preliminary measurements.
That would make 2007 one of the few years — if not the only year — in U.S. history during which total traffic volume decreased.
“It’s undeniable that consumption patterns are changing and are in transition right now,” says Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the Federal Highway Administration in Washington.
But he stopped short of directly blaming higher gas prices for the reduction in miles driven. “We can’t attribute this anomaly to one variable. It could be the weather that drove people away from driving,” Hecox says.
As fuel costs drive up ownership costs overall, non-fuel-related expenses are actually holding steady.
“In general, except for fuel and oil, automotive costs have stayed pretty competitive for an extended period of time,” says Steve Polzine, a director at the Center for Urban Transportation Research in Tampa, Fl.
The Number Crunch
Experts attribute this to increased competition among automakers, which keeps vehicle pricing and financing terms in check.
Full coverage auto insurance for sedans is projected to drop to $943 in 2008 from $985 in 2007, according to AAA. And annual depreciation expenses are expected to decline from $3,392 in 2007 to $3,321 in 2008.
“Cars are increasingly built better, so the depreciation losses are improving,” says AAA’s Calkins. “And insurance costs are down because cars are being built with improved theft protection.”
Two areas that AAA expects will experience slight increases are license, registration and taxes — rising to $554 per year from $538 in 2007— and finance charges — up to $758 per year from $733 in 2007.
“Rates are low right now, so if you can come down a point or two and have three or four years left on your loan, it might make sense to refinance,” Calkins says. “Car loans don’t have all the setup costs of a home loan, so any rate drop you can get is worth going for.”
Sources:
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/105412/Ten-Tips-to-Lower-Driving-Expenses
by John Adams
Thursday, July 17, 2008
provided by FORBES AUTOS.com
The most important dollar figure for calculating driving expenses is $140.
That’s about how much a barrel of oil currently costs.
This historic high is almost single-handedly responsible for raising the cost of owning and maintaining your automobile. “The overall cost of ownership was likely down if you look at non-gas factors,” says Michael Calkins, manager of approved auto repair for AAA, in Heathrow, Fla. “But the cost of fuel overwhelms everything else.”
The average driver using a new car can expect to spend $8,121 this year to rack up 15,000 miles on it, or 4% more than the $7,823 it would have cost last year, according to AAA’s annual study that assesses ownership costs. That works out to 54.1 cents for every mile, an increase of 1.9 cents.
The study, called “Your Driving Costs,” calculated ownership costs for four-wheel-drive SUVs separately, and they drain significantly more funds than the average car: a projected $10,448 per year, up from $9,997 in 2007.
Smaller Size, Smaller Expense
The size of a car has a big impact on how much it costs to finance, own and maintain. And generally speaking, the smaller the car is, the less it will cost owners.
For small sedans, the average ownership cost in 2008 is expected to be $6,320 — up from $6, 217 in 2007. Medium sedans should increase to $8,273 from $7,871, according to AAA.
For large sedans, the cost is much higher: $9,769 in 2008, up from $9,380 in 2007. For minivans, costs should increase to $8,644 from $8,639, which is lower than large sedans and SUVs.
Those numbers suggest that value-oriented drivers shopping for a large vehicle that accommodates five or more occupants would be better off choosing a minivan over a large sedan or SUV when it comes to ownership costs.
Money-Saving Tips
Besides downsizing and driving less, there are other ways to curtail costs, some of which have little to do with prices at the pump.
Simply lengthening scheduled maintenance intervals can save money. Today’s vehicles can go longer between routine services, such as oil changes.
“There are better quality engines being manufactured with a more precise tolerance and improved lubricants, and the combination of these things allows you to expand certain maintenance intervals,” says Jim Cain, a spokesman for Ford in Dearborn, Mich.
General Motors now includes an “oil life monitoring system” on its vehicles; it’s currently on about 18 million of them. The system continuously monitors engine-operating conditions to determine when to change oil. Intervals usually range between 5,000 and 12,000 miles, depending on driving conditions and climate.
The traditional 3,000-mile oil-change interval espoused for decades is becoming obsolete. And at around $50 a pop, fewer oil changes each year means more money in the bank — or more money for gas.
Being smart about where your vehicle is serviced can also keep costs down.
“Independent repair shops are less expensive than dealers, so that’s something to consider,” says AAA’s Calkins. “You don’t have to have your car maintained at a dealer to maintain your warranty.”
Drivers should also be vigilant of unnecessary or premature maintenance. “You don’t have to change your wiper blades if they’re still successfully clearing the window,” Calkins says.
Online resources such as the new website RepairPal.com can help in assessing maintenance and service costs and in finding reputable shops with competitive rates.
AAA projects that maintenance costs for the three sedan classes (small, medium and large) will drop to 4.57 cents per mile this year, down from 4.9 cents per mile in 2007.
Gassing Up
Fuel expenses are up across the board, as expected. The most dramatic hikes are for less efficient larger vehicles.
Four-wheel-drive SUVs still have the highest fuel expense, costing owners a projected 17.05 cents per mile in 2008, up from 12.6 cents in 2007, according to AAA data. Minivans do slightly better on fuel: 14.01 cents per mile this year, versus 10.6 cents last year.
On average, owners of small sedans like the Volvo S40, for instance, will pay the least in fuel expenses: 9.39 cents per mile this year, up from 7.4 cents in 2007. Medium sedans will cost owners 12.34 cents per mile for fuel, up from 9.4 cents; and large sedans 13.38 cents, up from 10 cents.
AAA’s fuel costs for 2007 were based on $2.25 per gallon gas at the end of 2006, while 2008’s were based on $2.94 per gallon at the end of 2007 — a figure that already seems quaint.
“This gas-price-driven increase in expense doesn’t feel like a simple economic cycle to me,” says Charles Ballard, a professor of economics at Michigan State University in East Lansing, Mich. “Gas at $4 per gallon is a reality during the summer driving season this year, and if this maintains itself, people will get the message that we’re in a new regime.”
Protracted Fuel Frenzy
Ballard and other industry analysts believe high gas prices could be here to stay. If so, the public will likely downsize to smaller vehicles, own fewer vehicles overall and drive fewer miles, experts say.
Higher fuel costs have already made an impact on Ballard’s next car purchase. “I’m going to get a passenger car,” he says. “I would have gotten an SUV, but I’m looking at a Chevy Impala. It’s not super fuel-efficient, but it has a feature that allows you to take down the back seat and haul stuff that way.”
Visit the Family & Home Center
The U.S. Department of Transportation reports that Americans drove 3.6 percent fewer miles last year than the year before — a total of 3.003 trillion miles in 2007 compared to 3.014 trillion miles in 2006, according to preliminary measurements.
That would make 2007 one of the few years — if not the only year — in U.S. history during which total traffic volume decreased.
“It’s undeniable that consumption patterns are changing and are in transition right now,” says Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the Federal Highway Administration in Washington.
But he stopped short of directly blaming higher gas prices for the reduction in miles driven. “We can’t attribute this anomaly to one variable. It could be the weather that drove people away from driving,” Hecox says.
As fuel costs drive up ownership costs overall, non-fuel-related expenses are actually holding steady.
“In general, except for fuel and oil, automotive costs have stayed pretty competitive for an extended period of time,” says Steve Polzine, a director at the Center for Urban Transportation Research in Tampa, Fl.
The Number Crunch
Experts attribute this to increased competition among automakers, which keeps vehicle pricing and financing terms in check.
Full coverage auto insurance for sedans is projected to drop to $943 in 2008 from $985 in 2007, according to AAA. And annual depreciation expenses are expected to decline from $3,392 in 2007 to $3,321 in 2008.
“Cars are increasingly built better, so the depreciation losses are improving,” says AAA’s Calkins. “And insurance costs are down because cars are being built with improved theft protection.”
Two areas that AAA expects will experience slight increases are license, registration and taxes — rising to $554 per year from $538 in 2007— and finance charges — up to $758 per year from $733 in 2007.
“Rates are low right now, so if you can come down a point or two and have three or four years left on your loan, it might make sense to refinance,” Calkins says. “Car loans don’t have all the setup costs of a home loan, so any rate drop you can get is worth going for.”
Sources:
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/105412/Ten-Tips-to-Lower-Driving-Expenses
星期日, 7月 20, 2008
台塑中油 搶探加拿大油砂
台塑中油 搶探加拿大油砂
【經濟日報╱記者陳秀蘭／台北報導】 2008.07.18 03:29 am
為掌握油源，中油、台塑企業紛紛搶進加拿大油砂。台塑企業已派先遣人員赴加拿大亞伯達省油砂礦區進行探路；中油昨（17）日也與加拿大薩奇萬 （Saskatchewan）省印第安自治區Indian Oilsands公司簽署合作備忘錄，雙方將合作探採油砂。
中油主管指出，中油與加拿大的探採油砂案，日前已獲董事會通過，中油計劃自今年起五年內斥資240億元，與加國合作夥伴共同合資進行。
中油主管指出，油源日漸枯竭，油砂是新崛起的非傳統油源，歐美各主要石油公司包括殼牌、CNRL、Syncrude、Suncor都搶進加拿大亞伯達省 探採油砂，面對油價每桶飆升到136美元，最近也傳出大陸三大石油公司、日本及南韓，也搶進加國亞伯達省油砂礦區卡位。
中油主管透露，向來甚少插足石油探採的台塑企業，最近派了一組人祕密赴加拿大亞伯達省，進行該省油砂礦區的地質調查及洽尋可能合作的礦區，動作相當積 極。
中油主管說，中油早在1980年代就進行前往加拿大探油砂的可行性評估，但遲未展開，主要是油砂探採成本高昂，當年國際油價每桶僅20、30美元，開採 的投資效益不高，但現在國際油價每桶飆漲至130美元至140美元，因而讓油砂探採效益大幅提升。
中油評估，只要國際油價高達80美元，就有探採價值。中油強調，加拿大油砂蘊藏量為全球最大，估計可採量達3,150億桶以上，僅次於沙烏地阿拉伯之原 油蘊藏量。
中油昨天由副總經理孔祥雲與加拿大薩奇萬自治區Indian Oilsands公司執行長湯姆斯（Ken Thomas）簽署合作探採油砂備忘錄。中油 表示，薩奇萬自治區油砂礦區，估計蘊藏量可達100億桶，是加拿大第二大油礦蘊藏礦區，僅次於亞伯達省。
加拿大目前是唯一商業化生產油砂的國家，日產量超過100萬桶，相當北海油田一天的產量，未來若以日產200萬桶估計，可生產達450年以上。
不過，薩奇萬自治區的油砂礦區，油層蘊藏在100公尺以下，相較亞伯達省油砂礦區位於地表，薩奇萬區自治區的開採風險較大，成本較高。
【2008/07/18 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/
【經濟日報╱記者陳秀蘭／台北報導】 2008.07.18 03:29 am
為掌握油源，中油、台塑企業紛紛搶進加拿大油砂。台塑企業已派先遣人員赴加拿大亞伯達省油砂礦區進行探路；中油昨（17）日也與加拿大薩奇萬 （Saskatchewan）省印第安自治區Indian Oilsands公司簽署合作備忘錄，雙方將合作探採油砂。
中油主管指出，中油與加拿大的探採油砂案，日前已獲董事會通過，中油計劃自今年起五年內斥資240億元，與加國合作夥伴共同合資進行。
中油主管指出，油源日漸枯竭，油砂是新崛起的非傳統油源，歐美各主要石油公司包括殼牌、CNRL、Syncrude、Suncor都搶進加拿大亞伯達省 探採油砂，面對油價每桶飆升到136美元，最近也傳出大陸三大石油公司、日本及南韓，也搶進加國亞伯達省油砂礦區卡位。
中油主管透露，向來甚少插足石油探採的台塑企業，最近派了一組人祕密赴加拿大亞伯達省，進行該省油砂礦區的地質調查及洽尋可能合作的礦區，動作相當積 極。
中油主管說，中油早在1980年代就進行前往加拿大探油砂的可行性評估，但遲未展開，主要是油砂探採成本高昂，當年國際油價每桶僅20、30美元，開採 的投資效益不高，但現在國際油價每桶飆漲至130美元至140美元，因而讓油砂探採效益大幅提升。
中油評估，只要國際油價高達80美元，就有探採價值。中油強調，加拿大油砂蘊藏量為全球最大，估計可採量達3,150億桶以上，僅次於沙烏地阿拉伯之原 油蘊藏量。
中油昨天由副總經理孔祥雲與加拿大薩奇萬自治區Indian Oilsands公司執行長湯姆斯（Ken Thomas）簽署合作探採油砂備忘錄。中油 表示，薩奇萬自治區油砂礦區，估計蘊藏量可達100億桶，是加拿大第二大油礦蘊藏礦區，僅次於亞伯達省。
加拿大目前是唯一商業化生產油砂的國家，日產量超過100萬桶，相當北海油田一天的產量，未來若以日產200萬桶估計，可生產達450年以上。
不過，薩奇萬自治區的油砂礦區，油層蘊藏在100公尺以下，相較亞伯達省油砂礦區位於地表，薩奇萬區自治區的開採風險較大，成本較高。
【2008/07/18 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/
星期三, 7月 16, 2008
6 Ways to Tell if You're Financially Ready to Retire
6 Ways to Tell if You're Financially Ready to Retire
by Emily Brandon
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
provided by U.S.News & World Report
If you're suddenly obsessed with thoughts of quitting the rat race and playing golf all day, it's probably a good sign that you're mentally ready to retire. But are you financially ready? That moment may be tougher to pinpoint.
Here are some ways to tell if you are financially prepared to take the leap:
Guaranteed Income Streams
Find out when you are fully vested in your pension and 401(k) and at what age you can begin making withdrawals. In some cases, spouses can also qualify for pension distributions. "You want some kind of income that's predictable that's not subject to investment fluctuations," says Anna Rappaport, a fellow of the Society of Actuaries. "Then you can afford to take more risk with the rest of the portfolio."
Almost all workers can begin collecting Social Security at age 62, but delaying claiming up until age 70 will net you between 7 and 8 percent higher checks for each year you delay. "You want to be looking at those annual benefit statements that you get to make sure your benefits have been appropriately credited," says Brent Neiser, a certified financial planner and a director of the National Endowment for Financial Education.
Liquid Assets
Workers without a traditional pension need to have cash that can be spent immediately upon retirement. "If you have liquid assets, you may be able to retire now," says Michael Kresh, president and chief investment officer of M. D. Kresh Financial Services in Islandia, N.Y.
However, workers without readily available cash should consider delaying retirement. "If you need to sell some stocks [to produce income to live off of], you cannot retire right now," says Ray Lucia, a certified financial planner and president and founder of Raymond J. Lucia Cos. Inc. in San Diego. "You should not ever sell into a declining market."
Ideally, you should have funds to pay for about three years' worth of expenses accessible in relatively safe accounts where there is little risk of losing principal, according to Jim Barnash, a certified financial planner in Northbrook, Ill. This should allow you to ride out market volatility without having to sell investments into a down market at a loss. "Historically, we have never had a period of more than three years' worth of down markets," says Barnash. He also recommends that you keep about 25 percent of your portfolio aggressively invested to fight inflation and the rest invested according to your risk tolerance.
A Retirement Distribution Strategy
In order to retire comfortably, you'll need to amass an ample sum of money so that withdrawing 4 to 5 percent each year will be enough to cover all your bills, according to Lucia. You can also try to minimize taxes by withdrawing larger sums from tax-deferred accounts in years when you are in a lower tax bracket.
It helps if you can wait for a market upswing to start drawing down your nest egg. "If you have to tap into your retirement investments in an economic environment like we are having right now, it certainly is going to put a lot more stress on your financial resources and can significantly reduce the number of years that you will have funds available to live off of in retirement," says Barnash. "If you can, try to hold off until the markets are steady or on an upswing to be able to retire with the best possible advantages of making it through the long run."
Health Insurance
Most companies no longer offer subsidized health insurance to retirees. If you retire prior to age 65, when Medicare eligibility kicks in, you'll need to find another source of health insurance, be it through a spouse, COBRA coverage through your former employer where you pick up the full and often pricey premium, or an even more expensive policy purchased on the open market. And even once people qualify for Medicare, various studies have found, couples will need between $205,932 and $225,000 to pay for out-of-pocket expenses like premiums, deductibles, and copays.
A Backup Plan
Unforeseen circumstances often complicate retirement plans. You could be laid off, develop a health problem, or have to care for a frail relative. "Don't fall in love with a date," advises Barnash. "Don't fall in love with a certain lifestyle." Maintaining good health and insurance for disability and long-term care can help mitigate some of these risks. But as a last resort, you may have to downsize your standard of living. "I would recommend that you think about the minimum that you really need to live on and be comfortable--the cheapest house and car that you would be comfortable in," says Rappaport. "Budget for the minimum standard of income at which you would be happy."
Kresh recommends developing a "two-sided budget": On one side, you list fixed basic expenses like food and housing costs and on the other, discretionary spending like entertainment and vacations. Then you can cut back on the latter column in tighter years.
A New Job Waiting in the Wings
Working just one extra year gives your retirement savings more time to accrue, lets you delay tapping your nest egg, shortens the period your savings will need to last, and allows you to get higher Social Security checks for life. And many jobs also provide valuable health insurance.
"In general, delaying retirement is always a good thing financially, but it's not always a good thing emotionally," says Kresh, who recently had a client who grew tired of playing golf four times a week after retiring. "When you're accustomed to working all the time, you have a lot of time to fill in retirement." Kresh thinks that most baby boomers should consider not retiring until age 70 for the best results.
Of course, not all employers covet older workers, who are typically more experienced but also more expensive and prone to health problems than their younger counterparts. "It's really important to keep your skills up to date in case you need to work longer," says Rappaport.
If you can find a job you enjoy, even one extra year of work can raise your standard of living throughout your retirement. Says Neiser, "Working longer is one of the best remedies for the retirement anxiety and fear that exists today."
Copyrighted, U.S.News & World Report, L.P. All rights reserved.
by Emily Brandon
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
provided by U.S.News & World Report
If you're suddenly obsessed with thoughts of quitting the rat race and playing golf all day, it's probably a good sign that you're mentally ready to retire. But are you financially ready? That moment may be tougher to pinpoint.
Here are some ways to tell if you are financially prepared to take the leap:
Guaranteed Income Streams
Find out when you are fully vested in your pension and 401(k) and at what age you can begin making withdrawals. In some cases, spouses can also qualify for pension distributions. "You want some kind of income that's predictable that's not subject to investment fluctuations," says Anna Rappaport, a fellow of the Society of Actuaries. "Then you can afford to take more risk with the rest of the portfolio."
Almost all workers can begin collecting Social Security at age 62, but delaying claiming up until age 70 will net you between 7 and 8 percent higher checks for each year you delay. "You want to be looking at those annual benefit statements that you get to make sure your benefits have been appropriately credited," says Brent Neiser, a certified financial planner and a director of the National Endowment for Financial Education.
Liquid Assets
Workers without a traditional pension need to have cash that can be spent immediately upon retirement. "If you have liquid assets, you may be able to retire now," says Michael Kresh, president and chief investment officer of M. D. Kresh Financial Services in Islandia, N.Y.
However, workers without readily available cash should consider delaying retirement. "If you need to sell some stocks [to produce income to live off of], you cannot retire right now," says Ray Lucia, a certified financial planner and president and founder of Raymond J. Lucia Cos. Inc. in San Diego. "You should not ever sell into a declining market."
Ideally, you should have funds to pay for about three years' worth of expenses accessible in relatively safe accounts where there is little risk of losing principal, according to Jim Barnash, a certified financial planner in Northbrook, Ill. This should allow you to ride out market volatility without having to sell investments into a down market at a loss. "Historically, we have never had a period of more than three years' worth of down markets," says Barnash. He also recommends that you keep about 25 percent of your portfolio aggressively invested to fight inflation and the rest invested according to your risk tolerance.
A Retirement Distribution Strategy
In order to retire comfortably, you'll need to amass an ample sum of money so that withdrawing 4 to 5 percent each year will be enough to cover all your bills, according to Lucia. You can also try to minimize taxes by withdrawing larger sums from tax-deferred accounts in years when you are in a lower tax bracket.
It helps if you can wait for a market upswing to start drawing down your nest egg. "If you have to tap into your retirement investments in an economic environment like we are having right now, it certainly is going to put a lot more stress on your financial resources and can significantly reduce the number of years that you will have funds available to live off of in retirement," says Barnash. "If you can, try to hold off until the markets are steady or on an upswing to be able to retire with the best possible advantages of making it through the long run."
Health Insurance
Most companies no longer offer subsidized health insurance to retirees. If you retire prior to age 65, when Medicare eligibility kicks in, you'll need to find another source of health insurance, be it through a spouse, COBRA coverage through your former employer where you pick up the full and often pricey premium, or an even more expensive policy purchased on the open market. And even once people qualify for Medicare, various studies have found, couples will need between $205,932 and $225,000 to pay for out-of-pocket expenses like premiums, deductibles, and copays.
A Backup Plan
Unforeseen circumstances often complicate retirement plans. You could be laid off, develop a health problem, or have to care for a frail relative. "Don't fall in love with a date," advises Barnash. "Don't fall in love with a certain lifestyle." Maintaining good health and insurance for disability and long-term care can help mitigate some of these risks. But as a last resort, you may have to downsize your standard of living. "I would recommend that you think about the minimum that you really need to live on and be comfortable--the cheapest house and car that you would be comfortable in," says Rappaport. "Budget for the minimum standard of income at which you would be happy."
Kresh recommends developing a "two-sided budget": On one side, you list fixed basic expenses like food and housing costs and on the other, discretionary spending like entertainment and vacations. Then you can cut back on the latter column in tighter years.
A New Job Waiting in the Wings
Working just one extra year gives your retirement savings more time to accrue, lets you delay tapping your nest egg, shortens the period your savings will need to last, and allows you to get higher Social Security checks for life. And many jobs also provide valuable health insurance.
"In general, delaying retirement is always a good thing financially, but it's not always a good thing emotionally," says Kresh, who recently had a client who grew tired of playing golf four times a week after retiring. "When you're accustomed to working all the time, you have a lot of time to fill in retirement." Kresh thinks that most baby boomers should consider not retiring until age 70 for the best results.
Of course, not all employers covet older workers, who are typically more experienced but also more expensive and prone to health problems than their younger counterparts. "It's really important to keep your skills up to date in case you need to work longer," says Rappaport.
If you can find a job you enjoy, even one extra year of work can raise your standard of living throughout your retirement. Says Neiser, "Working longer is one of the best remedies for the retirement anxiety and fear that exists today."
Copyrighted, U.S.News & World Report, L.P. All rights reserved.
星期二, 7月 08, 2008
【熱點專題】博股市「7翻身」，宜分階段入貨
【熱點專題】博股市「7翻身」，宜分階段入貨
2008/07/07 14:37
財華社香港新聞中心/記者張國棟報道。
上周壞消息頻出，歐美股市相繼步入熊市，全球股市上半年蒸發超過11萬億美元(約85.8萬億元)市值，經濟將面臨挑戰，香港亦不例外，雖然恆生指數出
現嚴重超賣，但上周恆指仍跌逾600點，市場預期另一隻「熊腳」有機會在7月份內出現，但是捕捉「熊腳」博反彈，投資風險甚高，因此投資者亦需衡量自身
可以承受的風險，不宜輕舉妄動。
市場對熊市的看法，一般來說共分3期，1期早於去年11月已開始，現時處於熊市2期，恆指由3月低位20,573反彈至26,387，屬熊市2期的反
彈，隨後的下調，為熊市3期，但2期中可以有一次反彈或者是多次反彈，故此在熊市2期與3期間，可以有多隻「熊腳」，估計7月便有「熊腳」可捉，香港在
過去兩次熊市中，便曾合計出現了多達10餘隻「熊腳」，事實上，港股跌至現水平，已具反彈條件。
昨天國家副主席習近平訪港，並帶來政策性利好消息，今天港股上升，會否是另一次反彈，目前不得而知，但是八國峰會(G8)會議於本周一至周三舉行，預計
會討論油價、糧食、通脹、弱美元及信貸危機等多個重要議題，市場正期待會議結果及會後聲明，而香港備受中美兩個市場影響，加上全球股市步入熊市，港股下
半年更形風急浪高，要捕捉「熊腳」博反彈，並非易事。
目前，市場普遍預期下一次底位是重回20,573點附近，屆時恆指市盈率將會跌至12倍左右，投資者入市較為穩當，然而內地政策多變，以及外圍不利消息
頻仍，單是7月美國便有多家大型企業公布業績，若出現嚴重虧損，已足以令港股再度下跌，因此散戶投資者入市並非全無風險，故此散戶宜以分階段入貨作長線
投資，或是捕捉機會趁高出貨較佳。
同時，由於港股仍以資金作主導，資金可以隨時大舉撤出市場，香港不少金融界人士亦早已指出，資金正在流出香港銀行體系，資金短缺亦已令銀行間拆息存在上
升壓力，近日本港主要銀行已相繼調高新造樓宇按揭利率，樓價受壓，加上通貨膨脹等問題困擾香港經濟，雖然港股估值吸引，但香港自身亦存在問題，港股今年
能否見底，結束熊市3期，仍是未知之數，不過散戶若要捕捉「熊腳」賺快錢，則以順勢投機較佳，嚴守止蝕位，避免於股市墮入熊市3期時，帶來嚴重損失。
更多精彩內容,請登錄財華網(http://www.caihuanet.com )
http://finet.hk
2008/07/07 14:37
財華社香港新聞中心/記者張國棟報道。
上周壞消息頻出，歐美股市相繼步入熊市，全球股市上半年蒸發超過11萬億美元(約85.8萬億元)市值，經濟將面臨挑戰，香港亦不例外，雖然恆生指數出
現嚴重超賣，但上周恆指仍跌逾600點，市場預期另一隻「熊腳」有機會在7月份內出現，但是捕捉「熊腳」博反彈，投資風險甚高，因此投資者亦需衡量自身
可以承受的風險，不宜輕舉妄動。
市場對熊市的看法，一般來說共分3期，1期早於去年11月已開始，現時處於熊市2期，恆指由3月低位20,573反彈至26,387，屬熊市2期的反
彈，隨後的下調，為熊市3期，但2期中可以有一次反彈或者是多次反彈，故此在熊市2期與3期間，可以有多隻「熊腳」，估計7月便有「熊腳」可捉，香港在
過去兩次熊市中，便曾合計出現了多達10餘隻「熊腳」，事實上，港股跌至現水平，已具反彈條件。
昨天國家副主席習近平訪港，並帶來政策性利好消息，今天港股上升，會否是另一次反彈，目前不得而知，但是八國峰會(G8)會議於本周一至周三舉行，預計
會討論油價、糧食、通脹、弱美元及信貸危機等多個重要議題，市場正期待會議結果及會後聲明，而香港備受中美兩個市場影響，加上全球股市步入熊市，港股下
半年更形風急浪高，要捕捉「熊腳」博反彈，並非易事。
目前，市場普遍預期下一次底位是重回20,573點附近，屆時恆指市盈率將會跌至12倍左右，投資者入市較為穩當，然而內地政策多變，以及外圍不利消息
頻仍，單是7月美國便有多家大型企業公布業績，若出現嚴重虧損，已足以令港股再度下跌，因此散戶投資者入市並非全無風險，故此散戶宜以分階段入貨作長線
投資，或是捕捉機會趁高出貨較佳。
同時，由於港股仍以資金作主導，資金可以隨時大舉撤出市場，香港不少金融界人士亦早已指出，資金正在流出香港銀行體系，資金短缺亦已令銀行間拆息存在上
升壓力，近日本港主要銀行已相繼調高新造樓宇按揭利率，樓價受壓，加上通貨膨脹等問題困擾香港經濟，雖然港股估值吸引，但香港自身亦存在問題，港股今年
能否見底，結束熊市3期，仍是未知之數，不過散戶若要捕捉「熊腳」賺快錢，則以順勢投機較佳，嚴守止蝕位，避免於股市墮入熊市3期時，帶來嚴重損失。
更多精彩內容,請登錄財華網(http://www.caihuanet.com )
http://finet.hk
星期一, 7月 07, 2008
亞洲企業形象 也可以很酷
亞洲企業形象 也可以很酷
2008-07-07 中國時報 【林上祚／專訪】
在不景氣年代，惟有創新，企業才有生路。《大想法策略》作者博恩．史密特（Bernd H.Schmitt）接受本報專訪強調，亞洲文化不應
是阻礙亞洲企業創新的藉口，即使不景氣，一樣可以透過通路、行銷的創新，達到縮減成本的目的。他指出，報紙等平面媒體，在發行量減少的今天，更該思索如
何讓讀者「找到」想要看的內容。
博恩．史密特專精於品牌創新，目前執教於哥倫比亞商學院，著有《體驗行銷》。新書《大想法策略》鼓吹企業創新，提升競爭力的管理論述，史密特
更針對企業激盪出創新的想法與決策，提出5種構想搜尋工具，提供作企業變革參考。
史密特的5項搜尋工具為：結合（表面上）不相容的東西、以業外標竿為師、殺死「聖牛」、踏出時間的框架與策略剝離等。史密特強調，要把公司固
守的獲利模式（聖牛）殺死，需要很大的勇氣
推崇iPod 產品與行銷的創新
史密特特別推崇蘋果iPod與iPhone的創新，他強調，iPod不只是產品的創新也是行銷手法的創新，它把線上音樂拆成一般民眾付得起的
價格，在網路平台上販售；其他行銷創新，例如聯合利華的多芬保養系列，推出「多芬自信基金」，強調真實的美（real beauty），完全扭轉了化妝
品產業對女體的形象。
史密特說，零售業同時販售數以萬計商品，久而久之，公司營運上會安於現狀、缺乏創新，有些產品例如玉米片等消費品，從包裝到行銷，都會流於窠
臼，其他同業因為習慣業界思維，也是大同小異，「這就是為什麼企業改造過程，必須要以業外標竿為師」。
日前宣佈收掉美國六百家分店的星巴克咖啡也是史密特推崇企業，史密特說，星巴克在咖啡市場，持續面對來自麥當勞等連鎖店競爭，星巴克現在做的
就是不斷地重塑來店消費的感受，例如在店內設置可供音樂下載的座位，讓來店不再只是喝咖啡。
史密特認為，即使在景氣下滑，企業撙節支出過程，一樣可以「有創意地」減少成本，例如調整供應廠商、調整通路、調整行銷手法，他舉例，航空業
鼓勵乘客上網線上劃位，就是一種節省企業成本，並提升效率的作法。
史密特表示，全球報業面臨不景氣，部分原因是他們對於報紙內容的調整，過於保守，對讀者來說，一分報紙只會細讀大概5至10則新聞，其中讀者
有感覺只有其中1到2則，讀者會主動尋找相關報導。
史密特認為，報業在內容區隔上，目前還是一團亂，有興趣的讀者，無法找到與記者直接聯繫的管道，面對發行量下滑，報業該去思索，「如何讓讀者
主動去找尋他有興趣的內容」，就像iPod找到聽眾願意負擔的音樂下載價格一樣。
亞洲文化 不是阻礙創新的藉口
不過史密特強調，好的想法必須有通暢的溝通管道，企業擬定「大想法策略」，勇於自我改革，這樣的企業文化必須是從底層培養的，不是少數主管關
起門來決定就夠的，Google每月讓員工有二十個小時，處理工作內容無關的領域，就是鼓勵員工創新的作法。
目前人在新加坡演講的史密特認為，亞洲企業文化，缺乏員工創意回饋，但這並不代表亞洲文化缺乏創新動力，「文化只是藉口」，有人說新加坡人思
維機械化均非事實。
事實上，亞洲並不缺乏全球品牌，例如三星、宏碁等，不過，史密特認為，亞洲企業應該多鼓勵員工多元的創意表達模式，不該提出太多制式要求，例
如，同樣是款待外賓，亞洲企業無須一味地強調職員舉手投足的優雅，「呈現在外的形象，也可以是很酷的」。
2008-07-07 中國時報 【林上祚／專訪】
在不景氣年代，惟有創新，企業才有生路。《大想法策略》作者博恩．史密特（Bernd H.Schmitt）接受本報專訪強調，亞洲文化不應
是阻礙亞洲企業創新的藉口，即使不景氣，一樣可以透過通路、行銷的創新，達到縮減成本的目的。他指出，報紙等平面媒體，在發行量減少的今天，更該思索如
何讓讀者「找到」想要看的內容。
博恩．史密特專精於品牌創新，目前執教於哥倫比亞商學院，著有《體驗行銷》。新書《大想法策略》鼓吹企業創新，提升競爭力的管理論述，史密特
更針對企業激盪出創新的想法與決策，提出5種構想搜尋工具，提供作企業變革參考。
史密特的5項搜尋工具為：結合（表面上）不相容的東西、以業外標竿為師、殺死「聖牛」、踏出時間的框架與策略剝離等。史密特強調，要把公司固
守的獲利模式（聖牛）殺死，需要很大的勇氣
推崇iPod 產品與行銷的創新
史密特特別推崇蘋果iPod與iPhone的創新，他強調，iPod不只是產品的創新也是行銷手法的創新，它把線上音樂拆成一般民眾付得起的
價格，在網路平台上販售；其他行銷創新，例如聯合利華的多芬保養系列，推出「多芬自信基金」，強調真實的美（real beauty），完全扭轉了化妝
品產業對女體的形象。
史密特說，零售業同時販售數以萬計商品，久而久之，公司營運上會安於現狀、缺乏創新，有些產品例如玉米片等消費品，從包裝到行銷，都會流於窠
臼，其他同業因為習慣業界思維，也是大同小異，「這就是為什麼企業改造過程，必須要以業外標竿為師」。
日前宣佈收掉美國六百家分店的星巴克咖啡也是史密特推崇企業，史密特說，星巴克在咖啡市場，持續面對來自麥當勞等連鎖店競爭，星巴克現在做的
就是不斷地重塑來店消費的感受，例如在店內設置可供音樂下載的座位，讓來店不再只是喝咖啡。
史密特認為，即使在景氣下滑，企業撙節支出過程，一樣可以「有創意地」減少成本，例如調整供應廠商、調整通路、調整行銷手法，他舉例，航空業
鼓勵乘客上網線上劃位，就是一種節省企業成本，並提升效率的作法。
史密特表示，全球報業面臨不景氣，部分原因是他們對於報紙內容的調整，過於保守，對讀者來說，一分報紙只會細讀大概5至10則新聞，其中讀者
有感覺只有其中1到2則，讀者會主動尋找相關報導。
史密特認為，報業在內容區隔上，目前還是一團亂，有興趣的讀者，無法找到與記者直接聯繫的管道，面對發行量下滑，報業該去思索，「如何讓讀者
主動去找尋他有興趣的內容」，就像iPod找到聽眾願意負擔的音樂下載價格一樣。
亞洲文化 不是阻礙創新的藉口
不過史密特強調，好的想法必須有通暢的溝通管道，企業擬定「大想法策略」，勇於自我改革，這樣的企業文化必須是從底層培養的，不是少數主管關
起門來決定就夠的，Google每月讓員工有二十個小時，處理工作內容無關的領域，就是鼓勵員工創新的作法。
目前人在新加坡演講的史密特認為，亞洲企業文化，缺乏員工創意回饋，但這並不代表亞洲文化缺乏創新動力，「文化只是藉口」，有人說新加坡人思
維機械化均非事實。
事實上，亞洲並不缺乏全球品牌，例如三星、宏碁等，不過，史密特認為，亞洲企業應該多鼓勵員工多元的創意表達模式，不該提出太多制式要求，例
如，同樣是款待外賓，亞洲企業無須一味地強調職員舉手投足的優雅，「呈現在外的形象，也可以是很酷的」。
成本上漲威脅中國出口企業
成本上漲威脅中國出口企業
WSJ（華爾街日報）網站
2008年07月02日07:18
在浙江洪合鎮，主幹道的一快廣告牌上寫著“中國毛衫名鎮”。然而，這個毛衫鎮的經濟正在滑坡，顯示出中國制造業步入中年期的初步跡象。
過去20年來，這個距上海90分鐘車程的小鎮在全球經濟中為自己找到了一個非常適宜的位置。在不久前，當毛衫行業發展處於鼎盛時期時，洪合的10萬名居民有逾半數在當地的100余家毛衫工廠和8,000余家商店工作，每年生產及銷售約2億件毛衣。當地政府稱，這些企業每年創收達6.5億美元。
而現在，許多出口商和工廠都關門停業。其他一些閑置了部分產能的企業也正在削減成本。許多來這裡打工的外地工人紛紛打道回府。
生產商表示，由於原材料及能源成本上升，他們的利潤有所下降。人民幣走強令洪合出口至美國等重要市場的商品價格上漲。據美國商務部(Commerce Department)統計，今年5月，中國商品的價格較上年同期上漲了4.6%，這是創紀錄的漲幅。習慣了價格低廉的中國產品、同時又擔心本國經濟疲軟的外國買家通常拒絕出更高的價錢。
中國政府的一些舉措也導致了這些企業的利潤縮減：公司說，政府加強對工人和環境的保護令其開展業務的成本更高了。外國買家也表示，更為嚴格的簽証政策讓他們難以來中國參觀工廠或參加交易會。
全中國的企業都感受到了這些壓力，只是玩具、家居用品、鞋類和服裝等低價產品生產商們所受的影響最為嚴重，而正是這些產品滿足了全球各地的大量需求。低成本產品生產商是中國經濟奇跡的重要動力，幫助中國成為了僅次於德國的世界第二大出口國。多年來，這些公司一直靠增加產量、壓縮利潤空間來獲得競爭優勢，從而實現增長。隨著原材料和人力成本增加及人民幣走強，這類制造商成為最難消化上述成本的企業之一。
這樣的變化在依靠某 廉價產品致富的新興城鎮身上最為明顯，從華南的廣東省到長江三角洲的洪合縣都是如此。行業管理者說，最近幾個月，許多這類制造中心都有數百家、甚至也許是數千家工廠關門。在位於上海附近、號稱領帶產量佔全球總產量三分之一的嵊州市，生產商們試圖聯合提價。廣東省東莞市也有許多玩具、鞋類和刷子生產商關門大吉。
Marketing Management Group Inc.駐香港的時裝行業顧問彼得﹒謝伊(Peter Shay)說：“這是情形終於發生變化的一年。在人們的記憶中，價格首次出現上漲。”
對嘉興伊尚美服飾有限公司董事長姚河榮等企業家來說，命運的轉變來得太快了。伊尚美是洪合最大的出口商之一。2005年，姚河榮找到了一家最大的客戶──沃爾瑪連鎖公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)，這家家族企業由此繁榮發展。姚河榮說，不久之後，美國市場就佔到了公司業務的20%。
但他說，來自沃爾瑪和其他美國客戶的大訂單正在漸漸枯竭。最近的一天，他辦公室樓下的車間裡，數十台針織機閑置著。沃爾瑪發言人在一封電子郵件中表示，公司目前沒有從洪合的工廠採購，但拒絕發表進一步的評論。
姚河榮說，我們非常擔心這塊業務。
這樣的困境雖然令人痛苦，但可能會引領中國經濟發展進入一個更為成熟的階段。中國的毛衫行業與其他許多行業一樣，可以說已經過剩：至少有6座城市號稱毛衫年產量上億件，洪合只是其中之一。在這類低成本領域，分析師們預計將會出現合並大潮，從而提高效率。他們表示，各公司還將被迫進行革新，以便能在價格之外的其他方面具有競爭力。
許多中國經濟學家和官員認為，中國過度依賴節省成本和簡單生產模式來推動出口。政府智庫中國社會科學院(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)駐北京研究員余永定說，如此嚴重地依賴外貿對中國來說並不是好事。他說，美國和日本的貿易額相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的20%左右，而中國約為75%。
當然，中國肯定還會在未來的許多年裡繼續充當出口大國。由於中國還生產不太容易受工資上漲等因素影響的工業機械及其他高價值產品，因而出口數額依然龐大。此外，中國的交通網絡，以及大量為制造廠商提供支持的供應商和企業，都是其他發展中國家所無法企及的優勢。
而對於既想出口、又想在中國國內銷售產品的公司來說，中國13億人的國內市場也極具吸引力。在上海美國商會(American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai)和博思艾倫咨詢有限公司(Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.)去年進行的一項調查中，83%的受調查公司表示計劃繼續在中國生產。但隨著上漲的成本削弱了中國作為制造地點的吸引力，約有17%的受調查公司表示至少會將一部分業務轉到印度和越南等低成本國家。
數百年來，長江三角洲的人們一直從事絲織行業。20世紀70年代，在中國從計劃經濟轉向市場經濟的前夕，當地政府在嘉興市下屬的洪合鎮開了兩家大型毛衫廠。嘉興位於上海西南70英裡，下轄許多工業鎮。
20世紀80年代改革開放以來，這些企業從日本和德國進口紡紗機，實現了設備升級。它們在北京設立銷售代表，與俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦等鄰國的經銷商開展貿易。到90年代末，姚河榮等業內老手開始離開洪合的國有企業，創立自己的公司。1999年，姚河榮和兩個兄弟招了20名員工，開始生產針織衫。兩年後，中國加入了世界貿易組織(WTO)，外國買家因此對中國供應商更有信心。姚河榮說，到2002年，他已接到意大利及西歐其他國家的定單。
四年前，姚氏兄弟實行擴張，在新工廠配備了能織出更復雜花樣的進口機器。他們與一家澳大利亞公司組建了合資企業，將針織衫年產能提高至300萬件。擁有400名員工的姚河榮說，他把從染羊毛到針織衫成品運輸等各個環節外包給了100多家企業。
洪合的各家店面堆滿了一卷卷線紗、一摞摞鬆緊帶。送貨的人蹬著滿載棉質、晴綸、羊毛等針織面料的三輪車穿過狹窄的街巷。在洪合鎮中心，巨大的蒸氣機正在給紗線染色。這個鎮的成功吸引了做中國內地貧困省份的移民，他們在這裡打工能比在家種地賺得多。打工者在鎮上附近的村子裡租房居住，通常還會把孩子也帶在身邊。
三年前，總部遠在美國阿肯色州本頓維爾的沃爾瑪定購了160,000件針織衫，這標志著姚河榮事業頂點的到來。他說，美國買家不斷光顧，促使他提高效率。姚河榮說，他們的定單數量多、價格低，做起來很難。
然而，就在洪合的商業蒸蒸日上之時，來自北京的政策轉變卻讓他們面臨著新的障礙。2005年7月，中國在國際貿易伙伴的壓力下同意放鬆對人民幣匯率的嚴格控制。此前十年，雖然中國的貿易順差迅速增加，但人民幣一直實行釘住美元的匯率制度，為出口商及外國買家創造了穩定的環境，但也激怒了一些西方人士，他們批評說，這讓中國出口商品價格低廉，從而享受到不公平的價格優勢。
人民幣的升值速度一開始十分緩慢。但去年開始人民幣加速升值，至目前已經上漲了20%。另一方面，人民幣兌歐元貶值，使得中國商品在歐洲價格更為低廉。但對許多制造商來說，這方面的好處不足以抵消它們面臨的困境。
與全球許多出口商一樣，洪合的出口合同也以美元結算。隨著美元走軟，這裡的出口廠商表示，他們不知道自己的產品在簽定合同三、四個月後發運時還能賺多少──或是賠多少。姚河榮說，我們要對美元訂單極其謹慎。
與此同時，中國政府開始實施一些政策，支持經濟的可持續發展，而不僅僅是追求速度。今年，政府頒布了新勞動法，限定工廠的加班時間，限制臨時工，並將最低用工年齡提高兩歲至18歲。新規定使洪合等地的小企業受到打擊，這些企業通常會根據生產周期招聘和解雇工人。中國還加強了環境監管，這意味著洪合的印染企業現在必須為它們所用的化學品支付處理費，而不是直接排放到穿過鎮上的小河。
姚河榮拒絕透露新成本對他的業務有何影響。但美國一家大服飾公司的採購員說，中國生產商在每件羊毛衫上的利潤空間已經從幾年前的2美元下降到30美分左右。
今年50歲的姚河榮說，他目前在尋求其他一些規模小、利潤也不高的出口市場 ，同時也會嘗試將銷售轉向他一直忽視的國內市場。最近，公司大倉庫的包裝工人正在將“Mr. Price”品牌針織衫裝進塑料包，等待運往南非。上面標注的零售價是：每件49.99蘭特（約合6.25美元）。
對洪合來說，今年本來會是特別興旺的一年。耗資16.8億美元、長22英里的杭州灣大橋上個月建成通車，使當地車輛去往 波集裝箱碼頭的時間縮短了一半。在距洪合市區僅幾分鐘車程的地方，沃爾瑪正在修建一個大型配送中心。而到12月，複雜的紡織品配額制度即將到期，中國對美國等國家的年度紡織品出口限制將被解除。
洪合鎮政府在接受採訪時表示，對當地產業還抱有希望；減少的職位主要是在技術相對落後的工廠。政府稱，2008年頭5個月，該鎮最大的幾家針織衫公司的銷售額增長了約25%，不過利潤空間大幅下降。
據當地人說，許多工廠在2月份春節假期之後就沒再開工。還在運轉的公司也在削減成本，包括許多印染企業，其主要員工現在只在夜間實行波谷電價時工作。在一家接待過採購人員的賓館，當記者問及入住情況時，賓館經理鄒著眉頭，隨後回過去親自擦起了地板。
據洪合鎮中心小學校長張國佩說，學校入學人數一度因外來務工人員子女的到來而大大增加，現在全校有大約2,200名學生，比2006年最高峰時的數字下降了5%。在張國佩辦公室裡的一台空調機上，學校擴建工程的模型積滿了灰塵。根據擴建計劃，學校打算將教室數量增加一倍。
已有外來務人員開始離開。20歲的曹久琳來自安徽，最近幾年，她說服自己的姐姐、兄弟和父母來到洪合跟她一起。他們租了一幢不大的農家房子，買了五台針織圓機和一輛送貨用的三輪摩托車。他們在老家另外雇了農民替他們種地。
經營洪合數千家小作坊之一的曹久琳一家可以說是中國出口行業規模分散化的一個縮影。每天早上，家裡會有一個人騎著三輪車去鎮上的主要市場，如果有活的話，他就會載著針織衫需要的材料回來。他們在房間裡幹活，一邊是床，另一邊就是電動針織機。他們將針織衫的袖子縫到衣身上帶回工廠，每件能掙大約23美分。曹家人說，由於訂單減少、競爭激烈，最近這些活的報酬只有以前的一半左右。
今年春季，曹久琳的父母回了安徽，解雇了之前請的農民，多年來第一次自己下地收割。已在安徽的父親曹明富在電話裡說，洪合沒什麼生意，每個月幾乎賺不到什麼錢。
身為針織廠老板的姚河榮午飯時一邊吃著蒸魚、喝著黃酒，一邊說，為了美國等不斷疲軟的市場之外找到新銷路，他都得高血壓了。他說這是“老板病”。
姚河榮說，一個想法是在國內銷售更多的針織衫，但他在中國零售商圈子裡沒什麼熟人。他說，自己一直是做出口的。
James T. Areddy
WSJ（華爾街日報）網站
2008年07月02日07:18
在浙江洪合鎮，主幹道的一快廣告牌上寫著“中國毛衫名鎮”。然而，這個毛衫鎮的經濟正在滑坡，顯示出中國制造業步入中年期的初步跡象。
過去20年來，這個距上海90分鐘車程的小鎮在全球經濟中為自己找到了一個非常適宜的位置。在不久前，當毛衫行業發展處於鼎盛時期時，洪合的10萬名居民有逾半數在當地的100余家毛衫工廠和8,000余家商店工作，每年生產及銷售約2億件毛衣。當地政府稱，這些企業每年創收達6.5億美元。
而現在，許多出口商和工廠都關門停業。其他一些閑置了部分產能的企業也正在削減成本。許多來這裡打工的外地工人紛紛打道回府。
生產商表示，由於原材料及能源成本上升，他們的利潤有所下降。人民幣走強令洪合出口至美國等重要市場的商品價格上漲。據美國商務部(Commerce Department)統計，今年5月，中國商品的價格較上年同期上漲了4.6%，這是創紀錄的漲幅。習慣了價格低廉的中國產品、同時又擔心本國經濟疲軟的外國買家通常拒絕出更高的價錢。
中國政府的一些舉措也導致了這些企業的利潤縮減：公司說，政府加強對工人和環境的保護令其開展業務的成本更高了。外國買家也表示，更為嚴格的簽証政策讓他們難以來中國參觀工廠或參加交易會。
全中國的企業都感受到了這些壓力，只是玩具、家居用品、鞋類和服裝等低價產品生產商們所受的影響最為嚴重，而正是這些產品滿足了全球各地的大量需求。低成本產品生產商是中國經濟奇跡的重要動力，幫助中國成為了僅次於德國的世界第二大出口國。多年來，這些公司一直靠增加產量、壓縮利潤空間來獲得競爭優勢，從而實現增長。隨著原材料和人力成本增加及人民幣走強，這類制造商成為最難消化上述成本的企業之一。
這樣的變化在依靠某 廉價產品致富的新興城鎮身上最為明顯，從華南的廣東省到長江三角洲的洪合縣都是如此。行業管理者說，最近幾個月，許多這類制造中心都有數百家、甚至也許是數千家工廠關門。在位於上海附近、號稱領帶產量佔全球總產量三分之一的嵊州市，生產商們試圖聯合提價。廣東省東莞市也有許多玩具、鞋類和刷子生產商關門大吉。
Marketing Management Group Inc.駐香港的時裝行業顧問彼得﹒謝伊(Peter Shay)說：“這是情形終於發生變化的一年。在人們的記憶中，價格首次出現上漲。”
對嘉興伊尚美服飾有限公司董事長姚河榮等企業家來說，命運的轉變來得太快了。伊尚美是洪合最大的出口商之一。2005年，姚河榮找到了一家最大的客戶──沃爾瑪連鎖公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)，這家家族企業由此繁榮發展。姚河榮說，不久之後，美國市場就佔到了公司業務的20%。
但他說，來自沃爾瑪和其他美國客戶的大訂單正在漸漸枯竭。最近的一天，他辦公室樓下的車間裡，數十台針織機閑置著。沃爾瑪發言人在一封電子郵件中表示，公司目前沒有從洪合的工廠採購，但拒絕發表進一步的評論。
姚河榮說，我們非常擔心這塊業務。
這樣的困境雖然令人痛苦，但可能會引領中國經濟發展進入一個更為成熟的階段。中國的毛衫行業與其他許多行業一樣，可以說已經過剩：至少有6座城市號稱毛衫年產量上億件，洪合只是其中之一。在這類低成本領域，分析師們預計將會出現合並大潮，從而提高效率。他們表示，各公司還將被迫進行革新，以便能在價格之外的其他方面具有競爭力。
許多中國經濟學家和官員認為，中國過度依賴節省成本和簡單生產模式來推動出口。政府智庫中國社會科學院(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)駐北京研究員余永定說，如此嚴重地依賴外貿對中國來說並不是好事。他說，美國和日本的貿易額相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的20%左右，而中國約為75%。
當然，中國肯定還會在未來的許多年裡繼續充當出口大國。由於中國還生產不太容易受工資上漲等因素影響的工業機械及其他高價值產品，因而出口數額依然龐大。此外，中國的交通網絡，以及大量為制造廠商提供支持的供應商和企業，都是其他發展中國家所無法企及的優勢。
而對於既想出口、又想在中國國內銷售產品的公司來說，中國13億人的國內市場也極具吸引力。在上海美國商會(American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai)和博思艾倫咨詢有限公司(Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.)去年進行的一項調查中，83%的受調查公司表示計劃繼續在中國生產。但隨著上漲的成本削弱了中國作為制造地點的吸引力，約有17%的受調查公司表示至少會將一部分業務轉到印度和越南等低成本國家。
數百年來，長江三角洲的人們一直從事絲織行業。20世紀70年代，在中國從計劃經濟轉向市場經濟的前夕，當地政府在嘉興市下屬的洪合鎮開了兩家大型毛衫廠。嘉興位於上海西南70英裡，下轄許多工業鎮。
20世紀80年代改革開放以來，這些企業從日本和德國進口紡紗機，實現了設備升級。它們在北京設立銷售代表，與俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦等鄰國的經銷商開展貿易。到90年代末，姚河榮等業內老手開始離開洪合的國有企業，創立自己的公司。1999年，姚河榮和兩個兄弟招了20名員工，開始生產針織衫。兩年後，中國加入了世界貿易組織(WTO)，外國買家因此對中國供應商更有信心。姚河榮說，到2002年，他已接到意大利及西歐其他國家的定單。
四年前，姚氏兄弟實行擴張，在新工廠配備了能織出更復雜花樣的進口機器。他們與一家澳大利亞公司組建了合資企業，將針織衫年產能提高至300萬件。擁有400名員工的姚河榮說，他把從染羊毛到針織衫成品運輸等各個環節外包給了100多家企業。
洪合的各家店面堆滿了一卷卷線紗、一摞摞鬆緊帶。送貨的人蹬著滿載棉質、晴綸、羊毛等針織面料的三輪車穿過狹窄的街巷。在洪合鎮中心，巨大的蒸氣機正在給紗線染色。這個鎮的成功吸引了做中國內地貧困省份的移民，他們在這裡打工能比在家種地賺得多。打工者在鎮上附近的村子裡租房居住，通常還會把孩子也帶在身邊。
三年前，總部遠在美國阿肯色州本頓維爾的沃爾瑪定購了160,000件針織衫，這標志著姚河榮事業頂點的到來。他說，美國買家不斷光顧，促使他提高效率。姚河榮說，他們的定單數量多、價格低，做起來很難。
然而，就在洪合的商業蒸蒸日上之時，來自北京的政策轉變卻讓他們面臨著新的障礙。2005年7月，中國在國際貿易伙伴的壓力下同意放鬆對人民幣匯率的嚴格控制。此前十年，雖然中國的貿易順差迅速增加，但人民幣一直實行釘住美元的匯率制度，為出口商及外國買家創造了穩定的環境，但也激怒了一些西方人士，他們批評說，這讓中國出口商品價格低廉，從而享受到不公平的價格優勢。
人民幣的升值速度一開始十分緩慢。但去年開始人民幣加速升值，至目前已經上漲了20%。另一方面，人民幣兌歐元貶值，使得中國商品在歐洲價格更為低廉。但對許多制造商來說，這方面的好處不足以抵消它們面臨的困境。
與全球許多出口商一樣，洪合的出口合同也以美元結算。隨著美元走軟，這裡的出口廠商表示，他們不知道自己的產品在簽定合同三、四個月後發運時還能賺多少──或是賠多少。姚河榮說，我們要對美元訂單極其謹慎。
與此同時，中國政府開始實施一些政策，支持經濟的可持續發展，而不僅僅是追求速度。今年，政府頒布了新勞動法，限定工廠的加班時間，限制臨時工，並將最低用工年齡提高兩歲至18歲。新規定使洪合等地的小企業受到打擊，這些企業通常會根據生產周期招聘和解雇工人。中國還加強了環境監管，這意味著洪合的印染企業現在必須為它們所用的化學品支付處理費，而不是直接排放到穿過鎮上的小河。
姚河榮拒絕透露新成本對他的業務有何影響。但美國一家大服飾公司的採購員說，中國生產商在每件羊毛衫上的利潤空間已經從幾年前的2美元下降到30美分左右。
今年50歲的姚河榮說，他目前在尋求其他一些規模小、利潤也不高的出口市場 ，同時也會嘗試將銷售轉向他一直忽視的國內市場。最近，公司大倉庫的包裝工人正在將“Mr. Price”品牌針織衫裝進塑料包，等待運往南非。上面標注的零售價是：每件49.99蘭特（約合6.25美元）。
對洪合來說，今年本來會是特別興旺的一年。耗資16.8億美元、長22英里的杭州灣大橋上個月建成通車，使當地車輛去往 波集裝箱碼頭的時間縮短了一半。在距洪合市區僅幾分鐘車程的地方，沃爾瑪正在修建一個大型配送中心。而到12月，複雜的紡織品配額制度即將到期，中國對美國等國家的年度紡織品出口限制將被解除。
洪合鎮政府在接受採訪時表示，對當地產業還抱有希望；減少的職位主要是在技術相對落後的工廠。政府稱，2008年頭5個月，該鎮最大的幾家針織衫公司的銷售額增長了約25%，不過利潤空間大幅下降。
據當地人說，許多工廠在2月份春節假期之後就沒再開工。還在運轉的公司也在削減成本，包括許多印染企業，其主要員工現在只在夜間實行波谷電價時工作。在一家接待過採購人員的賓館，當記者問及入住情況時，賓館經理鄒著眉頭，隨後回過去親自擦起了地板。
據洪合鎮中心小學校長張國佩說，學校入學人數一度因外來務工人員子女的到來而大大增加，現在全校有大約2,200名學生，比2006年最高峰時的數字下降了5%。在張國佩辦公室裡的一台空調機上，學校擴建工程的模型積滿了灰塵。根據擴建計劃，學校打算將教室數量增加一倍。
已有外來務人員開始離開。20歲的曹久琳來自安徽，最近幾年，她說服自己的姐姐、兄弟和父母來到洪合跟她一起。他們租了一幢不大的農家房子，買了五台針織圓機和一輛送貨用的三輪摩托車。他們在老家另外雇了農民替他們種地。
經營洪合數千家小作坊之一的曹久琳一家可以說是中國出口行業規模分散化的一個縮影。每天早上，家裡會有一個人騎著三輪車去鎮上的主要市場，如果有活的話，他就會載著針織衫需要的材料回來。他們在房間裡幹活，一邊是床，另一邊就是電動針織機。他們將針織衫的袖子縫到衣身上帶回工廠，每件能掙大約23美分。曹家人說，由於訂單減少、競爭激烈，最近這些活的報酬只有以前的一半左右。
今年春季，曹久琳的父母回了安徽，解雇了之前請的農民，多年來第一次自己下地收割。已在安徽的父親曹明富在電話裡說，洪合沒什麼生意，每個月幾乎賺不到什麼錢。
身為針織廠老板的姚河榮午飯時一邊吃著蒸魚、喝著黃酒，一邊說，為了美國等不斷疲軟的市場之外找到新銷路，他都得高血壓了。他說這是“老板病”。
姚河榮說，一個想法是在國內銷售更多的針織衫，但他在中國零售商圈子裡沒什麼熟人。他說，自己一直是做出口的。
James T. Areddy
